1. Catalogs
  2. EMBRAER
  3. 2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK
video corpo

2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK

2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK
1 / 24 PagesView full catalog

2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK

Product catalog summary
Forward-Looking Statement: The document includes forward-looking statements regarding Embraer's business and financial performance, highlighting potential risks and uncertainties that could lead to different actual results.
Introduction: The aircraft financing market is essential for managing investments in commercial airplanes. Embraer, a leader in the up to 150-seat segment, anticipates diversification in funding sources and low funding costs in 2019, with a shift from Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) to bank debt and capital markets.
Fleet and Market Overview: Regional airlines are crucial for U.S. airports, with North America being a mature market. Asia is experiencing growth in low-cost carriers, while the Middle East and Africa have specific preferences for widebody aircraft and turboprops, respectively. Embraer forecasts a demand for 10,550 new aircraft up to 150 seats over 20 years, driven by developing countries.
Fleet in Service by Region: Asia Pacific leads in fleet size, but North America has a more developed regional aircraft market. Market share changes are expected due to shifts in the OEM landscape, such as Airbus's involvement with Bombardier's CSeries and Boeing's joint venture with Embraer.
Aircraft Finance Outlook: Despite fewer deliveries, financing demand remains stable due to higher market values. Bank debt and capital markets are expected to play a larger role in 2019, with challenges in Europe due to economic conditions like Brexit.
Finance Outlook for Up to 150-Seat Segment: This segment accounts for 33% of the global fleet but only 5% of financing needs. Capital markets offer lower funding costs, with a shift towards banks and capital markets for financing.
Embraer Aircraft Finance Outlook: In 2019, capital markets are expected to be the main financing source for Embraer, moving away from ECA reliance. Diverse capital sources are pressuring traditional leasing options.
Embraer Program Funding Sources: Embraer's funding sources have shifted from ECA-supported financing to private funding, with a balanced portfolio ensuring resilience against market changes.
ECA-Supported Transactions: ECA-supported transactions are below historical levels, with limited access for the largest OEMs. ECAs are adapting policies to support aerospace jobs and diversify funding sources.
Debt Capital Markets and EETCs: In 2018, capital markets financed 28% of new aircraft deliveries, with EETC transactions being a primary source. Jurisdiction risk is a key consideration, with most EETCs issued by airlines in Cape Town Convention countries.
Bank Financing: Banks are increasingly attracted to aviation for its growth and stable assets, with significant participation from Asian banks. The regional aircraft market offers opportunities for solid yields.
Leasing vs. Owning: Leasing activity in the regional aircraft segment is growing, with lessors expanding order books to avoid yield compression.
Lessor Specialization: Competition among lessors is less intense in the regional segment, with growth opportunities due to new technology products and OEM consolidations.
Methodology: The report considers lessors as customers, not standalone finance sources, with financing sources updated within 12 months post-delivery. Financial amounts are based on Current Market Values (CMV), and permanent financing is classified into six categories.
See more

Catalog excerpts

2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-1

2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK

 Open the catalog to page 1
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-2

This presentation includes forwardlooking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market. The words “believes”, “may”, “will”, “estimates”, “continues”, “anticipates”,...

 Open the catalog to page 2
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-3

The aircraft financing market constitutes one of the most important pillars of the aviation industry. Commercial airplanes are large capital investments that may surpass double digit percentages of aviation total operating costs. The aircraft financing market is crucial for airlines, lessors and OEMs to efficiently manage such invesments and maximize their profitability. As the third largest commercial aircraft manufacturer and the number one in the segment up to 150 seats, we at Embraer Commercial Aviation felt we could contribute to our industry by sharing our perspectives of the aircraft finance...

 Open the catalog to page 3
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-4

FLEET AND MARKET OVERVIEW REGIONAL AND SMALL NARROW-BODY AIRCRAFT

 Open the catalog to page 4
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-6

Fleet and Market Overview / FLEET IN SERVICE BY REGION Number & Distribution by Region Aircraft up to 150 Seats 7% 2% 8% 41% 18% 24% North America Europe Asia Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Number & Distribution by Region All Aircraft Types 7% 4% 6% Africa Middle East 27% Asia Pacific leads overall fleet in service, but North America’s regional aircraft market is more developed than Asia Pacific. Regional airlines are the only source of air service for more than half of all U.S. airports and carry more than 40% of all U.S. passengers. Those airlines offer a high degree of network connectivity...

 Open the catalog to page 6
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-7

Fleet and Market Overview / Historically, large OEMs, with approximately 78% of the market, have focused their resources on developing larger single-aisle aircraft. Consequently, other OEMs seized the opportunity to grow their market share and compete in the segment with products that vary in structure and size. 23% 19% Bombardier Embraer Boeing Airbus ATR Fleet-in-Service All Aircraft Types Market shares in this segment are likely to change dramatically in the near future because of recent changes in the OEM landscape. Airbus took a majority stake in Bombardier’s CSeries program, Bombardier...

 Open the catalog to page 7
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-8

AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK

 Open the catalog to page 8
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-9

Aircraft Finance outlook / FINANCE OUTLOOK FOR THE UP TO 150-SEAT SEGMENT Aircraft USD Value, Distribution of Financing up to 150 Seats - 2018 Despite a 5% decrease in the number of deliveries expected in 2019, total demand for financing has remained stable compared to 2018. The mix of aircraft to be delivered this year saw an increase in the average appraised Current Market Values (CMV) which fully offset the year’s fewer deliveries. 40% Bank Capital Mkt Cash ECA ANPI Aircraft USD Value, Distribution of Financing up to 150 Seats – 2019F 12% Profit momentum in 2018 favored cash usage for balance...

 Open the catalog to page 9
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-10

Aircraft USD Value, Distribuition of Financing - up to 150 Seats 12% 1% Aircraft USD Value, Distribuition of Financing All Aircraft Types 31 Bank Capital Mkt Cash ECA ANPI OEM Up to 150-seat market is 33% of FIS but represents 5% of finance demand. Source: Cirium, Embraer, Boeing CAFMO Aircraft Finance outlook / REGIONAL VS. GLOBAL - 2019F The up to 150-seat aircraft segment represents about 33% of the global fleet-in-service yet only 5% of total financing needs. Capital markets provide lower funding costs and are usually tapped by companies with sound financial health, a suitable portfolio of...

 Open the catalog to page 10
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-11

EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK

 Open the catalog to page 11
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-12

Aircraft USD Value, Distribution of Financing 2018 Aircraft USD Value, Distribution of Financing 2019F Bank ( Capital Mkt ECA OEM ANPI CASH Deliveries concentrated on specific customers drive changes in financing profile. ECA lower than average share replaced by banks and capital markets. Source: Embraer Embraer Aircraft Finance Outlook / EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK Embraer’s 2018 deliveries were largely financed by cash and ECA funding. In 2019 however, capital markets shall be the most relevant financing source for Embraer deliveries, breaking off from the regional aircraft segment pattern...

 Open the catalog to page 12
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-13

Embraer Aircraft Finance Outlook / Number of aircraft 2018 deliveries E-JETS LEASE STRUCTURES 2018 & 2019 The current availability of different capital sources for regional aviation is competitive and puts traditional leasing options for operators under margin pressure. Some lessors have taken strategic positions in OEM orderbooks to secure skyline for their future transactions. 87% Owned Lease Placement Sale-Leaseback Number of aircraft 2019F deliveries With regards to Embraer’s deliveries, the recent concentration to US airlines and the transition to the E2s favors the buy option. Currently,...

 Open the catalog to page 13
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-14

Embraer Aircraft Finance Outlook / EMBRAER PROGRAM FUNDING SOURCES Distribuition of Financing ERJ Deliveries 1996-2006 32% Sources of finance in the regional market have evolved, as the current portfolio of Embraer jets moved away from ECA-supported financing towards private funding, leaving BNDES as a backstop. 10% 5% Bank Capital Mkt CASH ECA Distribuition of Financing E-Jet Deliveries 2004-2019F 23% The reliance on ECA funding for deliveries of the ERJs posed significant challenges to new aircraft deliveries in the past. In general, the 50-seat market was considered a niche asset which complied...

 Open the catalog to page 14
2019 EMBRAER AIRCRAFT FINANCE OUTLOOK-15

Embraer Aircraft Finance Outlook / E-JETS FUNDING SOURCES HISTORY FUNDING FOR E-JETS DELIVERIES The development of different funding sources for Embraer E-Jets ensured that deliveries would not be impaired by external factors in the financial markets. Changes to the share of each type of financing are highly correlated with general aircraft financing landscape and to the profile of deliveries to specific customers and markets. E-Jets are broadly comparable with narrow bodies as shown by their funding history. A substantial portion of E-Jets operators also have narrow bodies in their fleets and...

 Open the catalog to page 15

All EMBRAER catalogs and technical brochures

  1. E170

    2  Pages

  2. E195-E2

    2  Pages

  3. E175-E2

    2  Pages

  4. PHENOM 300E

    26  Pages

  5. PHENOM 100 EV

    26  Pages

  6. LEGACY 650E

    6  Pages

  7. PRAETOR 600

    25  Pages

  8. PRAETOR 500

    25  Pages

  9. PHENOM 100

    6  Pages

  10. PHENOM 300

    6  Pages

  11. Legacy 450

    6  Pages

*Prices are pre-tax. They exclude delivery charges and customs duties and do not include additional charges for installation or activation options. Prices are indicative only and may vary by country, with changes to the cost of raw materials and exchange rates.